Sunday, November 23, 2008

On regretting and decision-making...

Perhaps it is a truism of the human condition, or perhaps it is just an idiosyncrasy of a few. Regret can be a frustrating emotion, one that typically causes a negative spiral of "if only" scenarios that can never be reintroduced into our past lives. We see the theme of regret manifest in fantasy novels that allow time travel. But we also see it spun in self-help literature by gurus who encourage people to "learn lessons" from past mistakes. In the latter context, the negative emotions of regret can be turned into positive action via practical analysis... or so they say. So, what should we do with regret? I believe that we should ignore it, if at all possible. Don't dwell on it in a romantic fashion, and don't try to learn from the past. It's not worth it. This might shock you... but let me explain why.

When we regret, we use the knowledge we have about events and outcomes today to shed a critical light on decisions we made in the past. We posit that, had we known how things would turn out, we would have made a different, better choice. And, by extension, we deem our prior choice as bad, indulging in a self-whipping exercise. There are two flaws in this approach, in addition to the fact that we can no longer change the past.

Before I address the flaws, allow me to set forth a few basic assumptions about decision-making. If we make our decisions using these principles, then future regret can safely be ignored. First, we must decide what factors are forcing us to make any given decision; knowing the factors will help us evaluate the goals we want the decision to accomplish. Do we want to buy a car? Why? Is it the fear of the old one breaking down? Is it the desire to impress? Is it that a new car will get better gas mileage and reduce fuel costs? Second, we must decide when is the latest time we can make the decision... and what effect timing has on outcomes. As a general practice, it is best to delay finalizing or implementing the decision until the last-possible minute. Why? Because with time, the situation may change to either introduce new variables that you have not considered... or might moot the emotional aspect driving the decision in the first place. Third, we must weigh the different future scenarios resulting from both our decision to act as well as from our decision to not act (i.e., maintain the status quo). Scenarios can be many, and unexpected events can affect us in different ways depending on the future state that results from effectuating the decision. Evaluate as many of the likely scenarios as possible, and then decide if you would make the decision in spite of the scenario coming true. If any of the action scenarios are positive and if the positive scenario is likely, you must decide whether to take the risk. Granted, a thorough decision-making approach may be onerous to employ in every situation.

As long as you make a decision using some rational criteria (like the one above) rather than an emotional, impulsive reaction--and at least one of the likely scenarios was positive--you will see that regret has no place in your life. The first flaw of such regret is that we never have the benefit of foreknowledge and, hence, can never make a fully-informed decision. Take a decision with which you are faced today. The only "knowledge" you have that guides your decision comprises: the facts you know today; an expectation about future events that is either optimistic, pessimistic, or realistic (and we never know which of these "colors" tainted the expectation until the future happens); a view of our own abilities that is either optimistic, pessimistic, or realistic; and promises or indications from others, which are expectations (at best) or speculation (at worst). This "imperfect knowledge" will be your basis for the decision... this, and nothing more. You cannot obtain the hindsight of the future today. Therefore, as long as you make the decision with which you feel comfortable today, that is the best you can ever do. Regret about the past will not help you make decisions that you will not regret in the future; believing that it does is merely an illusion.

The second flaw is that "learning from mistakes or successes of the past" does not tell you what to "do"... it merely tells you what you "did." Sometimes you did nothing wrong or nothing right, and events outside your control are what created the negative or positive outcome. Moreover, you do not know with certainty the outcome had you done something different... though you think you might. As such, learning from the past creates a false sense of comfort, and might even lead to the wrong conclusion. If you took a risk and succeeded, it does not mean that you should always take the same kinds of risks; they may not succeed. Or if you took a risk and failed, it does not mean that you should never take risks... perhaps the next risk might work out in your favor. You might argue that this notion is ludicrous. After all, if we kick the ball with less force the first time and it travels a short distance, and next time we kick the ball harder and we see that it goes farther, it would be crazy to conclude that we should not draw a correlation between the force of the kick and the distance the ball travels. Thus, we would properly conclude that if we want the ball to travel a long distance, we should kick the ball harder. This is true. However, there is a critical difference between learnings about predictable, physical phenomena--which work according to predictable or almost-guaranteed laws of physics--and learnings about dynamic human behavior that is not only unpredictable, but is also dependent on myriad unpredictable variables and states. If the learning you wish to glean from the past is about a physical law, then definitely learn from the past. However, regret usually does not arise from these failures. Even if we regretted losing a game of soccer because we chose to hit the ball too hard and it hit the bar, what we regret is *not* the lack of knowledge that a harder kick makes the ball travel faster. What we regret is "choosing" to kick the ball harder. And that choice can help us learn nothing about future choices. For all we know, hitting the ball softer would have made the ball stop short of the net, or would have enabled the goalie to catch it, or... And there is nothing to say that next time you should kick the ball softer... because it might very well be that kicking the ball hard is *exactly* what you must do on the next occasion you have in front of the net. Hence, your future decision should be approached independently from your past ones.

Finally, we can seldom control strong emotions such as regret. If possible, try to ignore it. If not, try to write down your feeling, and then force yourself to ignore it. Try to understand and believe that you could not have made a better decision... that was the best decision you could have made given your knowledge. And, whatever you do, don't try to learn from the past.